Obama Can’t Save Us: Government Can Only Destroy
Intro Barack Obama thinks that the cause of economic crisis is lack of government oversight over our financial industry. Two quick questions: Prices communicate need The opposite of a market downturn is a market upturn. If Barack Obama wants strong markets then he doesn't want economic failure but economics success. Businesses fail if they do not make money or if they do not provide a product to the public that the public is willing to buy at a price higher than the cost of producing the product. If a business engages in a practice that does not bring about economic success for the business then it fails. Obama is implicitly saying that businesses do not know how to profit the way that government does and that people who are not motivated by money should be put in charge of these hapless money losing enterprises. Interesting. If I were selling lollipops for a thousand dollars a… pop…. and you notice me doing so while you are engaged in washing cars for pennies you may reconsider your occupation. In fact it is true that if I bought the ingredients for my lollipops pennies and sold the final product for thousands then you will do everything you could to copy this process and bring it to the market (a more relevant example may be iPod). The price of my lollipops communicate to you and everyone else that the value of these tasty treats is worth a lot to people who can pay such a premium price. The reason they pay such a premium price is because I am the only one selling them. If more entrants come into the market and bring a large supply of lollipops they will only be able to sell a few for the price I am selling them for. At this point people will lower the price in order to achieve a larger profit due to volume sold. The price will be as high as possible until forced to come down. This pricing mechanism communicates that not enough resources are being allocated to lollipop production. With more people motivated by profit (some say greed) more entrants supply more consumers at a cheaper cost. Who knew that greed could cause such social justice! What could government regulation or oversight do to improve this process? To improve the economy, like I said above, we need businesses to make more money. Businesses make more money by providing for the needs and wants of other people. When a business textbook refers to a business as being unethical 9 times out of 10 it means that a business is doing something that loses money. Politicians have similar views. However, when they say greed is the cause of economic crises they are horribly wrong for the reasons stated above. Inter-temporal prices (providing for future need) Not surprisingly even in University level finance classes professor's vaguely understand the concept of interest as an inter-temporal price mechanism that, if distorted, can cause financial crisis like the one we are going through at this moment (Dow Jones fell 504 points today, Asian markets are crashing as we speak). It is not that they don't understand intertemporal activity (activity through time) empirically but they fail to take the right approach to it economically. Austrian economists take a better approach to intertemporal prices or interest rates. Interest rates are determined by the supply and demand of loanable funds. If there is an increase in loanable funds then there is a decrease in the price or the interest on these funds. If I am the only one not consuming everything I earn through entrepreneurial activity but instead am lending money out to others who think they could provide society with something they desire then interest rates will be extremely high. Other people see that I am making a lot of money by not consuming and they follow suit. By saving more money the price of consumer goods drop (less demand) and the price of capital goods (goods that produce consumer goods or other capital goods) increase. In fact the whole economy will become more elongated as production processes increase in length and time producing more consumer goods which enables people to consume more for less. If a person can consume more for a dollar then 1 year ago then the REAL value of his money has increased. As we can see it is profit that distributes scarce resources from where society wants it least to where society wants it most. To say that greed is the cause of this economic crisis is truly absurd. If Not Greed Then What? So what causes the Business Cycle (bull and bear markets)? Whenever a price is distorted whether it is wage controls or price caps like rent control there is no way to distribute scarce resources based on need. Instead scarce resources are distributed based on something other than the desire of people to have something. In a market economy interest rates, like prices, can be distorted if an outside influence forces others to take wages or prices that they declare reasonable. In terms of interest the Federal Reserve takes the role of price fixer. The Federal Reserve distorts interest rates and distorts people's ability to act rationally in 3 different ways. The Federal Reserve has the ability to increase the supply of money in the market which causes inflation. This is damaging because there is no longer a trade off between consumption and spending. People consume at a higher rate than they would have had this not occurred and they have less of an incentive to save because interest rates decrease. So, instead of curbing consumption to save the capital goods market isn't able to easily acquire the labor and resources it could have at a lower price because consumption goods market is bidding up the prices. Instead of a transition of laborers from the consumer goods market to the capital goods market the price of labor and resources are bid up between the two. Since interest rates are lower there is much more of an incentive to take out a loan than there was previous to government intervention. More capital goods are produced with the assumption that at the current interest rate and consumption rate these entrepreneurial activities will be profitable. When government intervention slows down or stops interest rates increase, the incentive to save increases, and consumption decreases. As prices decrease (because consumption decreases) producers realize that their investments will be unprofitable. This is because instead of consumers curtailing their consumption to lower interest rates the Federal Reserve has increased the supply of loanable funds and has artificially lowered the interest rate. Capital goods and labor becomes more expensive while the production process becomes lengthier when the Fed does this. Under normal circumstances an increase in loanable funds would create a real wage increase but under the Fed's interventionist policy both the capital and consumer market go into a "boom" phase only to be followed by a "bust" when people realize the miscalculation of their economics ways. Conclusion As you can see when the Federal Reserve messes with interest rates the interest rate or prices through time get distorted. The most astute financial analyst is unable to calculate or know what will be a profitable or money losing investment. The mortgage crisis was not caused by bankers becoming dumber (they want to make money and not lose it after all). Government intervention caused this problem. Regulating the banking community is adding insult to injury and exacerbating a problem government itself created. When Obama proposes to regulate business in order for business to become or ethical, or as we see, make more money instead of fail, he is proposing to do what bankers with years of experience cannot do… overcome the intervention of the government.